The Coronavirus Answers No One Wants…

• Steve
• May 18, 2020
• 0 Comment
• 1115 Views

These are unprecedented times. The world is dealing with a new virus that has infected over 4.5 million and killed over three hundred thousand people around the world. The United States is among the hardest-hit nations, with 1.4 million infections and 88,000 plus deaths. The numbers are bleak, yet many feel we are at the end of the surge of the virus and can begin to return to normalcy. Others warn of a false sense of complacency and that dark times are ahead. So the question many are grappling with, especially here in the United States, what do we do? Should governors be rescinding shelter in place orders and opening businesses to help reignite the dormant economy? Or should we keep businesses closed, keep ourselves isolated until a vaccine and treatment are available, and we’ve mostly eradicated COVID-19?

Everyone has their own opinion about what should happen next. Go to any social media platform, and you will see strong opinions from this entire coronavirus is a hoax, to going outside will kill your grandma. Most people are going to dislike this next thought, but the truth is the answer likely isn’t yours. We all relish having our own biases reaffirmed, and generally, we view life through a lens that is most favorable to us as individuals, even though we say we just want what’s best for everyone. Again the reality is the answer to this situation isn’t your answer. I’ll explain it below.

Let’s start with keeping the shelter in place orders in effect. For those in this camp, it is evident that we cannot reopen states, have businesses open their doors, and people go back to work because the virus is highly contagious and poses too big of a risk to everyone. These people will argue that, at a minimum, we need more testing before we open, so we know who has it, and if people are infected, they can go into quarantine. Yes, we do need more testing, but the reality is we will never have enough kits to test even ten percent of the population multiple times a week or month. We would need ten times the number of tests currently available every month for the next 12 months. People would presumably need testing more than once, a test is not a vaccine, and there are many instances where people in healthcare, retail, emergency services, education, childcare, etc., would need to be tested multiple times in a month.

Meanwhile, the economy is hemorrhaging jobs, and states are losing revenue, which means essential services are losing funding. States like Ohio have already reduced budgets for education due to reduced tax revenue not being generated, resulting from the shelter in place order. By no means is a paycheck worth more than your life, but this is about more than a paycheck. People in the lowest income brackets are dealing with both more significant infection and death rates of the coronavirus and the financial impact of a slowed economy.  People being out of jobs means they lose health care benefits if they had them, there’s no money to pay for medications they or their family members may need. There are also concerns about people not correctly managing their non-corona related medical conditions properly due to fear of the coronavirus at hospitals and medical facilities. People are dying of heart attacks, strokes, appendicitis at home because they want to avoid hospitals. People are developing long term irreversible conditions because they are mismanaging their diabetes and other chronic diseases. We know the death toll from the coronavirus, but what is the death toll on the unintended consequences of continuing to shelter in place, and how do justify one against the other? In short, you can’t. Yes, in your mind, you think sheltering in place until the coast is clear, is the best thing for everyone, but in reality, it is not. It has a price, and for some people sheltering in place will cost them their lives.

On the flip side, you want to open the economy because “Main Street” is hurting, and people need jobs. Both of those sentiments are true, but there is a cost associated with this as well. The coronavirus is highly contagious and has proven to be deadly for hundreds of thousands of people around the world. The United States has only recently established a reliable testing protocol and is still working on the logistics of manufacturing and distribution of those tests. But as stated above, tests only get you so far against a disease; you need prevention and treatment. We do not have a vaccine, and at best, we will have one at the end of 2020. Our only weapon is social distancing and isolation, and by reopening the economy, you take away your best defense. We can’t shelter in place forever, but if we jump the gun and go back to early, we could make a bad situation worse.

There’s a lot we don’t know about the COVID-19. We’re assuming once infected and recovered; you can’t get infected again, we don’t know for sure. We are expecting that the virus will behave like influenza strains and fall off during the summer, we don’t know for sure. Some are anticipating that this virus will come back aggressively in the fall, we don’t know for sure, and we are not prepared. If the infections and hospitalizations begin to rise upon reopening are back and ground zero in terms of the economy. Have we put more people at risk and taxed our health care system even more, all for something that could have been avoided if we held out for another month? We can negotiate with vendors, landlords, and banks, but we can’t negotiate with this virus.  No, we can’t wait forever, but it is possible that moving too soon hurts more than continuing to utilize the only effective weapon we currently have.

So what does it all mean? Ultimately it means there is no right answer. What it means is, there are consequences and pain for thousands of people no matter what we do. People are going to die in connection with either decision. The only answer lies in compromise and empathy. Until we have a vaccine and treatment for the virus, we will have to exercise an excessive level of caution to protect those most at risk. Those who don’t feel comfortable fully re-engaging in their communities should not have to endure ridicule and personal attacks for doing what is best for them. On the other end, people need to get back to work, and they need jobs, health insurance, and money so they can take care of their essential needs. People wanting to provide for their families doesn’t make them greedy capitalists that don’t care about your Nana. To move forward, we’re all going to have to adapt until science catches up with our needs. Our ability to avoid ripping our communities and country apart until that happens is an entirely different conversation.